Chinese Travel Market Influenced by Four Crucial Elements, According to CAAT
The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has reported a steady recovery in passenger numbers between Thailand and China after the COVID-19 pandemic subsided. However, the recovery has been slower than expected due to safety concerns that affected Chinese travellers' confidence [1][2][3].
In January 2025, the number of inbound passengers on Thai-China routes increased by 34.68% compared with the same month in 2024, reaching 751,000. This strong start was largely due to China’s reopening and mutual visa-free travel policies [1]. However, subsequent safety concerns reversed this growth.
One significant safety-related incident early in 2025, notably the kidnapping of Chinese actor Xing Xing linked to a scam syndicate, severely undermined Chinese tourist confidence in Thailand. As a result, the average monthly Chinese tourist arrivals dropped by 32.71%, from 561,000 in 2024 to 378,000 in 2025 [1][2]. Similarly, overall inbound passengers on Thai–China routes decreased by 13.63%, from 615,000 to 531,000 monthly on average [1][2][3].
Additional factors exacerbating the decline included a major earthquake in March 2025 and geopolitical tensions, such as border clashes with Cambodia and widespread travel warnings, all contributing to a 6.56% drop in overall foreign arrivals by August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3][5].
The CAAT has identified four key factors to monitor that could affect passenger numbers on Thai-China flights:
- Restoring Chinese traveler confidence in safety through effective communication and enhanced security measures.
- Continued support of visa-exemption schemes (Free Visa policies) that facilitate easier travel between the two countries.
- Stabilizing the broader political and social environment to prevent further negative publicity.
- Addressing external factors such as natural disaster preparedness to reassure tourists [1][3].
Despite the challenges, Thai travellers continue to visit China in large numbers, cushioning the aviation sector from the sharper decline seen in the tourism industry. The Thai-China route accounted for 18.71% of all international passengers in 2024 [6].
The CAAT has cautioned that the overall figure may continue to fall unless new tourist markets emerge [7]. However, the authority remains optimistic about the recovery of passenger numbers on the Thai-China route, provided that the necessary measures are taken to restore confidence and maintain favourable travel policies.
[1] Thai-China Route Passenger Numbers [2] Chinese Tourist Arrivals in Thailand [3] Recovery of Thai-China Passenger Numbers [4] Impact of Safety Incidents on Tourism [5] Foreign Arrivals in Thailand [6] Thai-China Route's Share of International Passengers [7] CAAT's Warning on Passenger Numbers
- The strong increase in passenger numbers on Thai-China routes in January 2025 was initially driven by China’s reopening and mutual visa-free travel policies, but subsequent safety concerns reversed this growth.
- Chinese tourist confidence in Thailand was severely undermined by a safety-related incident, the kidnapping of Chinese actor Xing Xing, which led to a significant decline in average monthly Chinese tourist arrivals by 32.71%.
- The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has identified restoring Chinese traveler confidence in safety as a key factor to monitor that could affect passenger numbers on Thai-China flights.
- Stabilizing the broader political and social environment and addressing external factors such as natural disaster preparedness are other crucial factors the CAAT must consider to reassure tourists and maintain favourable travel policies for the Thai-China route.
